Montana is a must-win state for both parties in the 2024 general election for the U.S Senate, and it is shaping up to be the most expensive in U.S. history in terms of the cost per vote.
Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Tester is beginning to trail his Republican opponent, businessman Tim Sheehy, in most recent polls. The much-watched Cook Political Report has moved the race from “toss-up” to “lean Republican,” and The Hill reports, “Several recent polls have shown Republican businessman Tim Sheehy leading Tester by a few points, within the margin of error but not what Democrats are hoping for in a state seen as critical to their chances of keeping Senate control.”
Recognizing the importance of the race, super PACs are pouring money into Montana for television and digital ads, as well as for mailings and door-to-door canvassing.
As of September 30, a handful of mostly right-wing super PACs have spent $50.3 million, largely running ads opposing Tester or supporting Sheehy. Of that, $9 million has come from Ken Griffin, head of the stock trading firm Citadel, and Tim Mellon, heir to his family’s banking fortune.
On the Democratic side, independent expenditure groups have spent $38.7 million supporting Tester or opposing Sheehy, bringing outside spending on the race to more than $89 million. The data is from Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports covering January–September of this year.
With five weeks until the election, super PACs alone have already spent $147 per voter in Montana, if the number of votes cast this year were the same as 2020. This represents the most ever spent per vote on a Senate race, and likely the most spent per vote on a statewide race in U.S. history.
More Jobs, Less Government PAC spent $12.7 million opposing Tester and $5.9 million supporting Sheehy. This PAC’s donors are largely private equity and stock trading companies, the largest being Griffin’s Citadel investment firm, which contributed $5 million to the PAC. Almost all of this PAC’s spending is on this one Senate race.
The Senate Republicans’ super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has spent $9.5 million in the race against Tester, again largely for attack ads. It has spent $230,094 supporting Sheehy. Most contributors to the Leadership Fund are billionaires and corporations, but small donors also give.
GOP political consultant Karl Rove’s group American Crossroads has spent $9.2 million opposing Tester, almost all in television attack ads. Like the Senate Leadership Fund, American Crossroads raises its money from both billionaires and large corporations as well as thousands of small donors.
Charles Koch’s astro-turf group Americans for Prosperity Action (AFP Action) spent $2.3 million opposing Tester and $4.3 million supporting Sheehy.
AFP Action spent more than $140 million in the 2020 and 2022 election cycles combined, and this election it has spent more than $100 million to date backing far-right Republicans. This $240 million investment in less than six years makes the super PAC one the GOP’s biggest supporters.
Sentinel Action Fund, a new super PAC with billionaire investors, has spent $1.6 million supporting Sheehy and $256,817 opposing Tester.
Mellon, by far the largest donor to super PACs this election cycle, has given Sentinel $4 million. He contributed $115 million to former President Trump’s super PAC, Make America Great Again, and $25 million to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s super PAC.
Griffin gave $1 million to JFK, Jr.’s PAC, and Jimmy John’s, the fast food company, contributed $1.5 million.
Finally, Jefferson Rising PAC has spent $808,900 opposing Tester. Its biggest donor is billionaire Timothy Dunn, head of the oil and gas drilling company CrownQuest Operating LLC and vice chairman of the right-wing Texas Public Policy Foundation.
Tester has survived as a Democratic senator in a solidly red state by positioning himself as a moderate throughout his almost two-decade tenure. However, many of the attack ads portray him as “too liberal” or too complicit in the “liberal agenda” of the Democratic Party.
An AFP Action ad released in August claims that “Jon Tester voted for Bidenomics” and is responsible for inflation and the rising cost of living over the past four years. Other ads from More Jobs, Less Government and American Crossroads accuse Tester of being soft on the issue of the southern border and “illegal immigration.”
An ad from the National Rifle Association, which has spent $1.3 million on the race, attacks Tester for voting with “gun-grabbers like Kamala Harris.” Notably, the senator has crossed the aisle on several occasions to vote with Senate Republicans on issues of gun rights and border security, distinguishing himself as somewhat of a hardliner on Second Amendment and immigration issues within the Democratic Party.
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This article is half done. A part two is necessary to document spending to Support Senator Tester. Listing and identifying information on individual, corporate, organization s and PACs. Their reasons for supporting him and the types of ads or campaign communications. Doing this creates a richer, more balanced, and more voter helpful coverage of such a tight race. It’s better journalism and more ethical communication.